Hang Seng Looks Optimistic
Hang Seng rose after good data on non-farm payrolls made investors more confident with the recovery of the world economy. Non-farm payrolls increased by 321 000 to November; better-than-expected rise in October publication of 230,000 and a revised 243,000 increase.
Although the US unemployment rate steady at 5.8%, but the rate of increase in non-farm payrolls are the highest since January 2012 signaled continued improvement in the US labor sector. Hang Seng futures rose 0.11% and is now trading at 24 107.
However, investors appear reluctant to push up the index is too high after the details of the Chinese trade balance data confirms the continued slowdown in the Chinese economy in the last quarter of 2014, China’s trade surplus reached $ 54.47 billion in November; higher-than-expected $ 43.50 billion and $ 45.41 billion in October publication.
Nevertheless, China’s annual exports recorded an increase of only 4.7% for the month of November; worse-than-expected 8.2% rise and previous publications which increased 11.6%. China’s annual imports fell 6.7% for the month of November; lower than the estimated increase of 3.9% and a previous publication which increased 4.6%. Exports and imports can assert threat worsening economic slowdown that was overshadowing the bamboo curtain.
Technically, the index on the trading session today, Tuesday (12/09) likely to weaken, test negative trends, the impact of Wall Street. At the M15 chart bearish engulfing formation provides opportunities for the index to move downside. However, the volume tends to rise, early indications bullish index. In addition, RSI, the M15 chart, are oversold, signaling upside.
It is estimated, the index test the first support level that is 23 850 and 23800. If it fails in 23851, we then estimated the index tends to retest the resistance level of 23880 and continued until the possibility of being in the 23930 area.
Surplus Balance Walking Gains, Yen Streaking
Yen recorded the steepest rise in the 2-week low against the US dollar on Monday, fueled speculation that the decline in 7-week streak Japanese currency has gone too far and too fast.
The yen was also helped by the data showing the current-account surplus of 2 times greater than economists forecast. Japan’s current account recorded a surplus of ¥ 833.4 billion ($ 6.9 billion) in October, far beyond the estimated ¥ 370.1 billion. While the Relative-Strength Index 14-day yen against the dollar has been at 23, below the level of 30 which is considered a number of traders as a signal the possibility of reversal.
“Some profit taking seems to be approached Dollar-Yen following a sharp rise last week, it is the normalization of the position,” said Yuki Sakasai, forex analyst at Barclays Plc in New York. “The US data has improved, but there are no signs of accelerating growth in emerging markets. China’s import data showed domestic demand is still quite weak.”
Technically, the trading session today, Tuesday (12/09), the dollar yen pair a chance to move in the negative trend.
The weakening of the yen mainly expected soon reexamine the minimum support at 118.50 and 116.79 maximum. Meanwhile, if the Yen was able to break and hold above 120.79, then the other alternative scenario that Yen chance to test resistance in 121.90 and 123.10 area.
Negative Global Stock Market, Gold Prices Get Positive Encouragement
LLG on the closing price of gold at the close of trading on Monday monitored closed with significantly strengthened. Strengthening of the gold price in the LLG early this morning triggered by the movement of the negative global stock markets.
Global stock market movements tend to blush on Monday observed trade enough to give impetus to the strengthening of the gold price. Bursaa investment substitution relationship of stocks and commodities, especially gold, making gold prices pushed stocks rose while lethargic. The impact of that, the gold price rose and was pushed back through the level of $ 1200 / t oz.
The fundamental data related impulse, on Monday trading price of gold is lifted by the data of China’s GDP and trade balance. Japan GDP revised to a lower level than expected and China’s import trade balance below expectations, indicating the strength of the economies of both countries have not stabilized until the end of 2014. Based on these indications, the price of gold could get a boost reinforcement.
At the close of trading on Monday early this morning, the gold price closed at LLG observed significantly strengthened. Gold prices in the early hours this morning LLG closed up 1.03% to $ 1203.50 price level / t oz or rose $ 12.30 / t oz.
While at the close of trading on the Comex gold futures early this morning, gold futures prices closed higher also significant. Comex gold futures for February 2015 contract closed up 1.13% to the price level of $ 1203.8 / oz or rose 13.4 t / t oz.
Analyst predicts the price of gold will tend to weaken in today’s trading. It is based on the expectations of the data jolts US job opening will be positive. Related to the movement of prices, is expected to move down to try to break above $ 1195 with further potential to $ 1,186. Conversely, if there was a strengthening, the price will try to break through the level of $ 1,208 with further potential to $ 1,215.
Technically, gold in today’s trading session on Tuesday (12/09) potentially bearish, tested negative trend back, but prone to reversal. RSI indicator tends to re-test support channel and towards the oversold area, but Bollinger Bands that began to widen, thus giving impetus to the gold to the upside.
It is estimated that the gold price immediately prior to test support in the area of at least 1198.33 and re-test the maximum level of 1196.73. However, if the price of gold is able to break and hold above 1200.60, the estimated price of gold could potentially test the 1201.80 and 1203.10 resistance.
